SEC Expected to Make Decision on Ethereum ETF Approval by MidJuly

Spot Ethereum (ETH) ETF applications are set to be approved on July 15, as revised S-1 forms are expected to be submitted on July 8, with the final submission due on July 12.
Gemini, a crypto exchange, predicts that Ether ETFs could attract net inflows of $5 billion in the first six months of trading.
Nate Geraci, president of The ETF Store, anticipates a decision on the approval of S-1 filings for spot Ethereum (ETH) ETFs by mid-July.
In an interesting development, Jimmy Ragosa, the product manager at Consensys, previously suggested that approval could come shortly after Bitwise Asset Management submitted an amended S-1 document.
Earlier reports indicated that Ragosa mentioned the removal of details related to the fee structure and initial investment in the updated document. The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) had previously emphasized the need to prioritize certain elements, such as “risk factors, legal and regulatory statements, contact information, and the distribution plan.” The SEC extended the deadline for submission of updated documents to July 8.
In addition to the amended documents, the SEC has extensively engaged with Ethereum ETF applicants to address major concerns, with recent feedback mainly consisting of minor queries.
Once approved, Gemini predicts that the spot Ether ETFs could attract net inflows of $5 billion in the first six months. According to their research report, total assets under management (AUM) for ETH ETFs in the US could reach $13 billion-$15 billion during that period, assuming the current Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE) is included.
The report highlights the favorable risk-reward of an ETH catch-up trade in the coming months, citing comparable AUM in international ETF markets, robust on-chain dynamics, and unique factors such as a thriving stablecoin environment.
Gemini believes that a net inflow below $3 billion into spot Ether ETFs would be disappointing, considering that its Bitcoin counterpart recorded $15 billion in the first six months. They expect the $5 billion net inflow to be about one-third of Bitcoin’s numbers, while an inflow of around $7.5 billion, or 50%, would be a significant upside surprise.
Steno Research also agrees with this analysis and predicts net inflows of $15-20 billion for Ether spot ETFs in the first 12 months.
At present, ETH is trading at $3,350, experiencing a 2.5% decline in the last 24 hours and a 1.4% decline in the last seven days.