Bitcoin’s price has been stuck in a narrow range, affected by the cash-and-carry arbitrage strategy. Institutional trading behavior continues to support the idea of a range-bound market. Bitcoin has been fluctuating between $56,552 and $73,777 for several weeks, creating a highly volatile trading environment. Traders are challenged with predicting breakout directions within this unpredictable range.
Experts advise waiting for a clear breach of resistance levels before making significant trades. This situation adds complexity to significant trades, as reported in Coin Market Cap news updates.
The recent price stagnation of Bitcoin is mainly attributed to the cash-and-carry arbitrage strategy, as highlighted by Glassnode. This trading method involves taking a market-neutral position by purchasing BTC in the spot market (going long) and simultaneously selling its futures contract (going short) when trading at a premium.
According to The Week Onchain Newsletter, this trend is likely to continue. In their Week On Chain report published on June 18, Glassnode analysts noted, “The cash-and-carry trade continues, with a particular uptick by institutional traders, reinforcing an expectation of range-bound trading for the time being.”
On June 18, Bitcoin hit $64,602, the lower boundary of its range. The downward trend of the 20-day EMA at $67,249 and an RSI below 40 indicate bearish dominance. If $64,602 fails, Bitcoin could drop to $60,000. However, a rebound above the 20-day EMA could push it to $70,000.
Despite significant inflows into crypto investment products, Bitcoin’s price remains range-bound. Glassnode noted that increased cash-and-carry trades—long positions in U.S. Spot ETFs and shorting futures on the CME Group exchange—diminish the impact of these inflows.
Additionally, Bitcoin’s price dropped 6% in the past week due to the Federal Reserve’s restrictive stance, shaking investor confidence and leading to $32 million in liquidations over the past 24 hours.
Bitcoin is now in its fifth epoch following the halving on April 20, which reduced miner rewards from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC, significantly impacting miner revenue. Despite a 12% correction from the all-time high of $73,800, analysts remain cautiously optimistic.
Analysts like CrediBULL Crypto suggest a potential bottom for Bitcoin around the $64,000 level. If broken, Bitcoin could drop to critical support levels at $60,000, $52,000, and $46,000. Currently, Bitcoin (BTC) is priced around $64,946.79, reflecting a 0.24% decrease in the past day and a 4.87% decrease in the past week.
