As the highly anticipated halving event draws nearer, investors are closely monitoring the price trends of Bitcoin. Despite a slight dip in the middle of the week, BTC is steadily approaching the $70,000 mark, with a gain of 2.3% in the past day.
Analysts believe that in order to confirm an upside breakout from the pennant pattern that Bitcoin has been stuck in since late February, BTC bulls must push the cryptocurrency past the $70,000 resistance before the halving takes place.
The fate of Bitcoin this year was always going to be influenced by two major events: the ETF decision by the SEC in January and the halving in April. The first event is now behind us, and it propelled BTC to its all-time high price of over $73,000. The second event is just 12 days away, and analysts have differing opinions on how it will affect the price.
Despite a 32% dip in trading volume, Bitcoin is currently trading at $69,550, showing a gain of 2.2% in the past day. Although it started the week above $70,000, the top cryptocurrency experienced a dip and reached a weekly low below $65,000 on Tuesday. However, it has since rebounded and seems poised to regain critical support above $70,000. Year-to-date, BTC has gained 64% thanks to the ETFs and a general market rally that has pushed its price to new heights.
One of the most significant upcoming events in the Bitcoin ecosystem is the halving, and analysts are still divided on how it will impact BTC’s price. The halving, which will occur in 12 days, will reduce the block reward from 6.25 BTC ($434,438) to 3.125 BTC ($217,219).
According to analysts from Steno Research, a Danish macro research company, Bitcoin is likely to experience a “buy the rumor, sell the news” scenario. This is when the price of an asset surges as it approaches a significant event, such as being listed on a major exchange or receiving approval from regulators, but then experiences a drastic dip after the event takes place. Steno’s research indicates that BTC’s price is expected to surge over the next 12 days, as shown in the graph below.
However, immediately following the halving, the price is expected to remain subdued before appreciating over the next year, following a pattern that Bitcoin has exhibited in the previous three halvings.
The researchers at Steno Research emphasize their optimistic long-term perspective, stating that the halving is fundamentally bullish for Bitcoin. They anticipate that the anticipated reduction in selling pressure from miners will bolster Bitcoin’s price. They also believe that the true bullish momentum of the halving will become evident once the initial market adjustments have settled and the “weak hands” – investors who bought in with the expectation of quick gains, including some ETF investors – have exited. The long-term positive effects of the halving on Bitcoin’s price are expected to materialize after this initial phase of downward pressure.
In the short term, one analyst, known as Captain Faibik to his 88,000 followers on X, suggests that BTC needs to break above the $70,000 resistance in order to maintain its bullish momentum. He points out that Bitcoin has been stuck in a pennant pattern since early March, where the price experiences a sharp movement before consolidating. If BTC breaks above the upper side of the trendline, which is above $70,000, it is likely to sustain its bullish rally.
Overall, with the halving approaching and analysts offering various opinions, the Bitcoin market is eagerly awaiting the event’s impact on the cryptocurrency’s price.