The director of global macro at Fidelity Investments, Jurrien Timmer, has made a bold prediction for Bitcoin, claiming the asset could overtake gold. However, he believes that this could only happen in a decade or two.
Detailing his thesis, Timmer explained that this potential move would not be as simple as people think. Per his observation, Bitcoin would have to follow either the power law curve or the S-curve trajectory of internet adoption.
Our research shows that the Power law curve occurs when the distribution of a return is heavily skewed. Meanwhile, the S-curve adoption is a graphical representation of adoption and growth over time. Technically, this covers how technology evolves, gains traction, matures, and levels off.
According to Timmer, this prediction also assumes that gold follows its historical compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8%. The challenge for Bitcoin in this “journey” is that “hard money could end up winning the race” if it grows at the rate indicated by the two models.
Amidst this backdrop, gold could also appreciate faster than the usual 8% per year, staying ahead of its digital version. In concluding his submission, Timmer highlighted that “gold will always be Bitcoin’s quieter older sibling.”
Previous Opinions on the Bitcoin vs Gold Discussion
Earlier, The Digital Chamber analyst Perianne Boring disclosed that Bitcoin could reach the market capitalization of gold in 2025. However, she explained that this could depend on several factors. Out of this, one of the key factors is the successful establishment of Bitcoin as a strategic reserve in the US. Fascinatingly, an executive order has been signed by US President Donald Trump to make this a reality, as indicated in our recent blog post.
If Donald Trump is successful in putting forward many of the proposals he promised to the community, the sky is the limit because Bitcoin has a fixed supply.
Adding to this, Boring disclosed that the successful operation of the “so-called Boosting Innovation, Technology and Competitiveness Through Optimized Investment Nationwide (BITCOIN)” could position Bitcoin within the same category as gold and oil reserves.
Based on the results of the stock-to-flow (S2F) model, she believes that the asset could hit $800k. Mathematically, this price point could send the Bitcoin market cap to at least $15 trillion.
Meanwhile, Germany’s biggest bank, Deutsche Bank, does not see much disparity between the two. As detailed in our last news piece, Deutsche equated Bitcoin to gold as a digital store of wealth while hinting that the recent strategic reserve move by the US could define a new benchmark for the world’s financial system.
In a recent study, we reported that 52% of Americans now prefer Bitcoin to gold and stocks, pointing to a significant shift of interest and a future move towards the luxurious metal’s current market cap.