Dr. Jeff Ross, founder and managing partner of Vailshire Capital Management, has made a bold prediction that Bitcoin will reach a price of $475,000 by the fourth quarter of 2025. Speaking on the Simply Bitcoin YouTube channel, Ross stated that this prediction is based on his analysis of the past two years.
Despite concerns expressed by other market analysts, Ross believes that current economic conditions are setting the stage for a significant increase in Bitcoin and other high-risk assets.
While acknowledging the existence of those who believe that the world economy is on the verge of collapse, similar to what happened in 1929 or 1999, Ross refuted these opinions. He argued that the U.S. economy is actually in the early stages of a new cycle rather than facing disaster.
Ross highlighted the strong performance of the services sector as a major driver of the American economy, which has helped to offset manufacturing shortcomings and boost the composite index.
When it comes to Bitcoin pullbacks, Ross emphasized the importance of taking a long-term perspective. He pointed out that pullbacks of 20-30% are to be expected in a continuous bull market and should not discourage investors. Even if Bitcoin were to experience a temporary decline to $75,000 or $85,000, it would still be considered a healthy market correction if it reaches $120,000 by the end of 2024.
Ross stressed that these pullbacks are just normal phases of price change and should encourage investors to maintain a long-term view. He also acknowledged the psychological difficulties that investors face, such as panic during downturns and fear of missing out (FOMO) during price rises.
Another crucial factor affecting the expected expansion of Bitcoin is its hashrate, which measures the network’s computing capacity. Ross and the hosts of Simply Bitcoin discussed the impact of the China mining restriction in 2021, which initially caused a significant decline in hashrate and Bitcoin price. However, the price rebounded as miners relocated to more favorable countries, demonstrating the resilience of Bitcoin’s decentralized network.
Ross also addressed contrasting opinions on Bitcoin’s price potential. While many analysts believe there is a limit of $200,000 for the current cycle, he argued that Bitcoin often defies conventional expectations. Based on historical trends, the parabolic development that supports his $475,000 target often follows a halving event, as will occur in 2024.
Global liquidity trends further bolster Ross’s optimistic stance. He noted that the Global M2 money supply, a key indicator of liquidity, has been increasing since the fourth quarter of 2022. Despite recent gains in the U.S. dollar temporarily slowing down this increase, Ross predicts that the dollar will weaken, which would benefit risk assets like Bitcoin and emerging markets.
Ross also highlighted forward-looking data, such as new business orders, which indicate a three- to six-month economic recovery. He also emphasized the role that fiscal spending has played in preventing a recession and driving economic growth.
While acknowledging challenges in Europe and China, Ross emphasized that the United States remains the global engine of development. As the U.S. economy gains momentum, it could have a positive impact on international markets, creating an environment conducive to the acceptance and value increase of Bitcoin.
“Liquidity is key,” Ross stated, “and Bitcoin is the ultimate absorber of liquidity.” He argued that as banks resume lending and the money supply increases, more capital will flow into Bitcoin, driving its price higher.